Methodology
Where the views come from
The three horizon views are produced by a quantitative Bitcoin forecast model operated by the publisher and are republished here without hindsight editing. Every published forecast is archived permanently. The accompanying analysis explains, in plain language, what moved and why the model currently holds its views. Forecasts are uncertain assessments, not guarantees; no accuracy claim is made or implied.
Horizons
- Short term: next 1–4 weeks
- Medium term: next 1–6 months
- Long term: next 1–3 years
These windows are fixed. If the underlying model changes them, the change is announced here with a methodology version bump — the site never silently translates one window into another.
Vocabulary
Every view uses one of 5 defined states:
- Strong Bearish: The model sees clearly negative conditions: downside scenarios dominate this horizon.
- Bearish Bias: Conditions lean negative: downside scenarios are more likely than upside ones, without dominating.
- Neutral Range: No directional edge: the model expects range-bound movement over this horizon.
- Bullish Bias: Conditions lean positive: upside scenarios are more likely than downside ones, without dominating.
- Strong Bullish: The model sees clearly positive conditions: upside scenarios dominate this horizon.
Updates and staleness
Before an asset's first forecast is published, its page shows an explicit “coming soon” state — never a default or placeholder view. Once live, forecast cards update when the model publishes a new forecast, each accompanied by a concise analysis. No update is published merely to look active. A forecast older than 7 days is visibly marked as outdated rather than silently kept, and timestamps always show when a forecast was actually generated.
Corrections
Errors are corrected by appending a dated note to the affected outlook. Archived forecasts are never rewritten, deleted or renumbered to look better in hindsight.