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Archived outlook · published as recorded, never rewritten

Bitcoin outlook, 2026-08-07

  • Short term, next 1–4 weeks: Bearish Bias. Conditions lean negative: downside scenarios are more likely than upside ones, without dominating. Bitcoin broke above a recent lower high — a short-term sign of strength that could establish support if the level is retested. The stance stays cautious, however: the structure still points toward a move back down to support rather than a durable trend change, so the near-term view remains a bearish bias.Generated 2026-08-02T09:56:00Z.
  • Medium term, next 1–6 months: Bearish Bias. Conditions lean negative: downside scenarios are more likely than upside ones, without dominating. The medium-term trend stays down with Bitcoin ranging in the low-$60,000s; the risk remains to the downside until bulls reclaim overhead resistance.Generated 2026-08-07T09:01:00Z.
  • Long term, next 1–3 years: Strong Bullish. The model sees clearly positive conditions: upside scenarios dominate this horizon. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish; neither the consolidation in the low-$60,000s nor a deeper washout would change the multi-year thesis.Generated 2026-08-06T10:36:00Z.

· snapshot 2026-08-07-a · methodology 1.0

MARA Holdings Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Falls 27% to $175M, $611M Net Loss

Signal21 Editorial Desk

A loss made of paper Bitcoin

MARA Holdings reported a second-quarter net loss of about $611 million, or roughly $1.60 per share — far wider than the small loss analysts had expected. On the headline it looks alarming. Underneath, most of it is a paper mark: a roughly $343 million unrealized loss on the company's Bitcoin holdings as the price of Bitcoin fell through the quarter. That is an accounting revaluation of coins MARA still holds, not cash leaving the business.

Revenue told a similar story. It fell about 27% year over year, to roughly $174.9 million from $238.5 million, and MARA attributes about $65.9 million of that decline to a roughly 28% drop in Bitcoin's average price — the market moving against the asset, not the business failing to execute.

The machine ran faster, not slower

Strip out the Bitcoin price and the operation improved. MARA mined 2,422 Bitcoin in the quarter, about 26.6 per day and 64 more than a year earlier, while energized hashrate reached 70.3 exahash per second, up 22% from 57.4 a year ago. The company ended the quarter holding 35,577 Bitcoin, worth roughly $2.1 billion at a spot price near $58,524. This is a miner producing more, running a larger fleet, and keeping a large treasury intact — while the reported number is dominated by a mark it did not choose.

Why Signal21 turns more constructive

A quarter like this is the kind of print the market tends to see coming. Bitcoin's weakness through the quarter was public and continuous; a large unrealized markdown at a company holding more than 35,000 coins was arithmetic, not a shock. With the bad number now reported and absorbed, and the balance sheet and mining operation intact, the overhang that kept us cautious near term has largely cleared.

Signal21 therefore moves its near-term view on MARA to Bullish Bias: the worst of the expected bad news is out, the sellers who were going to react have largely done so, and the operational trend is up. The medium-term view stays Bullish Bias on the debt reduction and power buildout, and the long-term view remains Strong Bullish on MARA's power-and-compute thesis maturing into durable non-mining revenue. This is market analysis, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Sources

  • A Bitcoin recovery that restores mining margins and lifts the treasury mark would reinforce the constructive medium- and long-term case.
  • Signed AI or high-performance-compute revenue converting MARA's power capacity into cash flow would strengthen the thesis further.
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