Bitcoin

Every daily Bitcoin article we have published, newest first.

• 

  2026-09-21

  We said $84,000 would make our short-term call wrong. Bitcoin just printed $86,000

  Bitcoin broke the band that capped every advance since May and traded at $86,000, a level last seen in January. We are retiring the $70,000 target we published, exactly as we said we would.

• 

  2026-09-19

  Bitcoin took back everything the CLARITY vote cost it, on no fundamental at all

  Four sessions after the Senate killed market-structure legislation, bitcoin closed at $80,875 and traded above $81,700. Liquidated shorts did the buying, in a week when two central banks hiked.

• 

  2026-09-15

  Self-custody as deterrence: the withdrawal button matters most to the people who never press it

  A case worth weighing: the right to withdraw disciplines custodians whether or not it is exercised. We test it against the record, and count how much bitcoin now sits where no door was built.

• 

  2026-09-13

  Ray Dalio still prefers gold: why his "a bit of Bitcoin" is an argument by elimination

  In an August 21 essay, Bridgewater's founder told investors to underweight bonds, overweight gold and hold a bit of Bitcoin. He has not changed his mind about Bitcoin, which is the interesting part.

• 

  2026-09-10

  Liquid drained of 4,000 BTC: the biggest hack of 2026 is being negotiated in Bitcoin transactions

  A software bug, not a stolen key, let someone walk 4,000 BTC out of the Liquid sidechain on September 6. Most came back within a day, after a negotiation anyone could read on the Bitcoin blockchain.

• 

  2026-09-07

  Replay attacks, explained: how one signature can spend your coins on two chains

  A reader asked what replay attacks mean for the BLAKE2b fork. Nobody takes your keys, but a transaction you signed on one chain can copy onto the other, and the protection is opt-in and one-way.

• 

  2026-09-05

  BIP-110's best argument: the day data storage becomes load-bearing

  The failed fork's defenders made one argument worth keeping: standardize arbitrary data and a market grows around it, carrying incentives that could one day resist changes Bitcoin needs.

• 

  2026-09-03

  OCEAN and Luke Dashjr part ways as the BLAKE2b fork becomes a real chain

  The pool built to decentralize Bitcoin mining and the developer now forking Bitcoin's proof of work could no longer share a roof. Meanwhile the BLAKE2b chain went live, and Bitcoin did not notice.

• 

  2026-09-02

  Capital B raises €21 million, and the treasury-company lesson that matters

  France's Capital B raised €21 million alongside Adam Back and TOBAM. The model is Strategy's, and so is the lesson: the bet is simple, and the balance-sheet piloting decides what shareholders get.

• 

  2026-08-31

  Bitcoin's first "quantum-safe" transaction: a lifeboat, not a new engine

  StarkWare spent real bitcoin through a quantum-resistant construction with no fork and no rule change. What it proves matters; what it cannot do matters more, and StarkWare says so itself.

• 

  2026-08-28

  Holding $80,000: why the odds of a $70,000 pullback are fading

  Bitcoin's first daily close above $80,000 since mid-May shifts the odds: while the level holds, we put a pullback to the $70,000 region below 40% and favor consolidation that could resolve higher.

• 

  2026-08-25

  OMEGA60's $1 million Bitcoin: what the model gets right, and where it breaks

  Samson Mow's OMEGA60 puts Bitcoin at $1 million in February 2031. The measurement problem it identifies is real; compounding a median as though it were a growth rate is where it comes apart.

• 

  2026-08-23

  Should Bitcoin's 21 million cap change? A serious proposal and a serious answer

  StarkWare's Eli Ben-Sasson wants to replace Bitcoin's 21 million cap with a permanent 4 percent issuance ceiling. The economics deserve an answer, but the cap's real defense is different.

• 

  2026-08-21

  Bitcoin's bull market strengthens, but the short term stays neutral

  Signal21 upgrades Bitcoin's medium-term view to Strong Bullish while keeping the short term neutral and the long term Strong Bullish.

• 

  2026-08-20

  BIP-110's last resort: change Bitcoin's proof of work and leave the miners behind

  BIP-110's supporters did not stand down: a BLAKE2b proof of work draft is now open in Bitcoin Knots. Why changing the mining algorithm creates a new network instead of taking over Bitcoin.

• 

  2026-08-19

  Why Bitcoin jumped past $68,000: ETF inflows return and Washington leans in

  Bitcoin touched $69,698 on Coinbase after two days of ETF inflows, a new SEC crypto framework and a White House summit on the CLARITY Act. What drove the move, and what could change it.

• 

  2026-08-18

  Jane Street's $15 billion July, and what it means for Bitcoin's liquidity

  Jane Street lost about $15 billion in July, its first down month in a decade. Why firms that never lose money matter to Bitcoin: they are the plumbing between the spot market and the ETFs.

• 

  2026-08-16

  'Fire the miners': BIP-110's endgame, and the case for Bitcoin's neutrality

  A week after the BIP-110 fork stalled at two blocks, its author says supporters will change proof-of-work to 'fire the miners.' In practice a new coin, and a neutrality test Bitcoin passed.

• 

  2026-08-10

  Bitcoin's BIP-110 fork failed: two blocks, then silence

  Bitcoin's contested BIP-110 fork split off over the weekend, mined two blocks and stalled. The main chain rolled on (more than 200 blocks ahead) and the price barely moved. What the failure settles.

• 

  2026-08-07

  MARA Holdings Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Falls 27% to $175M, $611M Net Loss

  MARA Holdings posted a $611 million Q2 net loss on a $343 million Bitcoin markdown, with revenue down 27% to $175 million, but mining output and hashrate rose, and the drop was already priced in.

• 

  2026-08-04

  Why banks fight stablecoins, and may embrace tokenized stocks

  Banks lobby hard against stablecoin yield: a zero-sum fight over their own deposits. Aim the same lens at tokenized stocks and the incentive flips: dormant brokerage lines become fee-earning assets.

• 

  2026-08-03

  The corner of crypto that stopped watching Bitcoin

  Bitcoin fell from about $126,000 to about $64,000, and tokenized stocks set a record anyway: $2.2 billion on-chain, double March. The growth isn't crypto retail. It's the plumbing.

• 

  2026-08-02

  Why a power law is not a prophecy

  The Bitcoin power law fits the past strikingly well, which is why it invites precise-looking price targets. Signal21 explains why those are not the model's, and how you would know if it broke.

• 

  2026-08-01

  Money writes code, nodes decide

  Hashrate can be bought and headlines arranged, yet Bitcoin's rules sit where money has never reached: in the software each node operator chooses to run. That mechanism, not goodwill, is the firewall.

• 

  2026-07-31

  The war of the blocks

  Before asking whether money can steer Bitcoin, replay the one time it tried hardest: in 2017 a coalition claiming most of the industry and the hashrate set out to change the rules, and lost.

• 

  2026-07-30

  The hold that wasn't dovish

  The Fed held at 3.50%–3.75%, but three dissenters wanted a hike and the statement got shorter. Bitcoin's relief pop faded within hours, and the week's second act lands today.

• 

  2026-07-29

  Whoever pays the developers

  If institutions fund Bitcoin's developers, do they end up steering Bitcoin? The crude version of that fear was tested in 2017 and failed. The subtler version is still worth watching closely.

• 

  2026-07-28

  Fifteen million dollars is not the story

  Nine institutions pledged $15 million over three years to fund Bitcoin's security research. As money it is a rounding error. As a disclosure of where their interests sit, it is far more interesting.

• 

  2026-07-27

  The coins that stopped moving

  Long-term holder supply (coins unmoved for at least 155 days) has climbed to a record 16.64 million BTC: the clearest sign of accumulation in this downturn, but dormancy is not the same as demand.

• 

  2026-07-26

  The same Bitcoin, a fraction of the attention

  Bitcoin near $65,000 is technically the same asset it was far higher a year ago. What changed is perception and interest; history says maximum disinterest tends to mark better entries than euphoria.

• 

  2026-07-24

  The Bitcoin power law: a model that fits fifteen years of price

  A now peer-reviewed model says Bitcoin's price tracks a power law of time, fitting fifteen years to within a few percent. Signal21 explains what it claims, and why it is context, not a target.

• 

  2026-07-23

  Bitcoin rejection keeps $62,000 in focus

  Bitcoin rejected the $66,500 area and returned toward $65,000. The short-term Bullish Bias is under pressure, with $62,000 now the key downside level.

• 

  2026-07-21

  Bitcoin breaks above $66,500 intraday; short-term view turns bullish, medium-term turns bearish

  Bitcoin briefly broke above $66,500 before slipping back. The short-term view improves to Bullish Bias, while the medium-term view turns Bearish Bias on a potential autumn pullback toward $38,000.

• 

  2026-07-20

  Bitcoin tests major resistance as the short-term outlook turns bearish

  Bitcoin is testing resistance near $65,000. The short-term view remains bearish below $66,500, while the broader outlook remains constructive.