The estimate has more than doubled
The suspected Binance hot-wallet incident is no longer confined to the first Ethereum addresses identified on Thursday.
A new Hyperdash data snapshot estimates that $5.60 billion was drained across Ethereum, Bitcoin and Tron as of the time displayed on its graphic. The estimate includes 18,270 BTC, approximately 197,000 ETH and a much larger USDT total than the first Ethereum transfer revealed.
If the attribution and deduplication are confirmed, this would be far larger than the initial $2 billion alert and would rank as the largest known crypto-exchange exploit by a wide margin.
But the number is still an analytics estimate, not a final loss confirmed by Binance. The supplied graphic does not include its full wallet list, transaction table or methodology, so Signal21 cannot yet reproduce every cross-chain component independently.
What the $5.60 billion contains
Hyperdash's breakdown is:
| Asset | Amount | Estimated value | |---|---:|---:| | USDT | 2.29 billion | $2.29B | | BTC | 18,270 | $1.45B | | USDC | 823 million | $823M | | ETH | 197,170 | $451M | | RLUSD | 88.54 million | $88.6M | | wBETH | 29,930 | $75.3M | | XAUt | 12,570 | $50.5M | | UNI | 7.01 million | $47.6M | | ENA | 217.32 million | $41.5M | | PEPE | 7.77 trillion | $38.8M | | 57 other assets | n/a | $243M |
The component values add to approximately $5.60 billion. Those dollar values are time-sensitive: BTC, ETH and the non-stablecoin tokens can change the headline total even if no assets move.
A necessary correction: not all $2.29 billion USDT is frozen
The text circulating with the graphic says “$2.29B in USDT (frozen)”, but that is not what the graphic's own frozen-assets box shows.
According to Hyperdash:
- Total USDT identified: about $2.29 billion
- USDT frozen by Tether: about $1.56 billion
- USDT not yet frozen: about $730 million
- USDC frozen by Circle: about $823 million
- Total frozen stablecoins: about $2.38 billion
The arithmetic is internally consistent: $1.56 billion plus $823 million is approximately $2.38 billion. Treating the entire $2.29 billion USDT balance as frozen would overstate containment by roughly $730 million.
About $3.22 billion remains outside issuer freezes
Using Hyperdash's figures, approximately $3.22 billion of the estimated $5.60 billion total remains outside the displayed freezes.
That includes the 18,270 BTC, about 197,000 ETH, approximately $730 million USDT and most of the remaining token basket. The exact value moves with markets.
This is where the asset type matters. Tether and Circle can blacklist USDT and USDC at the smart-contract level. Native Bitcoin and Ether have no issuer with an equivalent freeze switch. Recovery would require control of the destination keys, cooperation from a service that later receives the assets, or a voluntary return.
Frozen also does not mean recovered. It means the blacklisted stablecoins cannot currently move from those addresses. A recovery or reissuance process still has to be agreed and executed.
What is verified and what remains attributed
Signal21 previously verified the Tether and Circle blacklist transactions on Ethereum and the balances held by the primary recipient. CZ then wrote that the activity “does look like a hack on Binance” and said he expected user funds to be fully covered.
The new elements are the Bitcoin, Tron and expanded USDT attribution. Those figures currently come from Hyperdash's cross-chain snapshot. Binance's current management has not yet published a technical post-mortem, a complete affected-wallet list or a final accounting.
That distinction matters. A tracker can correctly identify transfers from Binance-labelled wallets without proving whether every asset was stolen, still controlled by Binance, or counted once across intermediate addresses. A reproducible address list is the next essential piece of evidence.
The questions now facing Binance
- Are the 18,270 BTC and the Tron USDT part of the same compromise?
- Which signing system or operational control failed across multiple chains?
- How much of the $5.60 billion represents customer liabilities rather than corporate inventory?
- Which balances are frozen, returned, still mobile or still controlled by Binance?
- What capital source will cover users if the full estimate becomes a realised loss?
The scale has changed, but the editorial standard has not: $5.60 billion is the best current Hyperdash estimate, not yet Binance's confirmed final loss.
Read the chronology in Signal21's initial transfer alert and the stablecoin-freeze update.
This is a developing story. Values and containment status can change quickly as assets move or issuers intervene.